Exchange Traded Funds may be the next bubble! -1

Exchange Traded Funds currently experiencing rapid development in the United States, where they constitute more than half of the daily trading volume in the equity markets. The expansion of these instruments is less visible for the moment in Europe, because in U.S. where half of the market is held by individual investors where as in Atlantic the investors are mainly institutional investors are present in this class asset. Just may be feared that the development of the ETF market is currently powering the next financial meltdown? Recall that the ETF are the basis of funds, that is to say, collective investment vehicles such as UCITS, whose purpose is to replicate the performance of a market index, upward or downward, and whose shares are traded on the stock exchange just like stocks. They offer investors the opportunity to take a position, with management costs and tax costs reduced on a market index, including inaccessible or illiquid markets such as emerging markets, small caps, etc.

There are ETFs on all sectors of the market, and if a little unlikely sector is not yet covered today and in tomorrow it will emerge as new ETF. This is happening almost daily. We will soon invest in the segment of companies specializing in the balloon or tie pins, or companies based in anywhere. If there is no index representing the performance of the sector concerned, no problem, it creates the index and the ETF in stride. The phenomenon went beyond the stock market and extends to all asset classes, bonds (ETN Exchange Traded Notes), commodities (ETC Exchange Traded Commodities), futures, currencies (ETV Exchange Traded Vehicle) etc. The set is grouped under the term FTE, Exchange Traded Products. In short it is a beautiful alphabet soup simmering and is reminiscent of a previous recipe, the securitization (remember the ABS, MBS, RMBS, CMBS, CDO, etc), which had overflowed with some damage collateral for the past 5 years from now.

On the road there is nothing simpler than ETF investor buys an index, and as follows, upward or downward, the performance of the index being tracked. But precisely how this replication is obtained? There are two main methods: physical replication and synthetic replication. With physical replication, the issuer of the ETF actually holds the portfolio securities of the index being tracked. It calculates and communicates information two times: first, the net asset value equal to the valuation at market prices of assets held , divided by the number of shares issued and secondly the market price of the share , which comes from the comparison of buying and selling interests in exchange just like a stock. Both figures; net asset value and share price must be the same to a small margin near.

What will happen in case of divergence? These are specialized intermediaries (“authorized participants "), mandated by the fund issuer, which come into action. If the market value of the share exceeds the net asset value then the ETF is moving faster than the rise in the index, they will buy a basket of stocks in the index. This then delivers their new units; they can sell on the market, realizing a capital gain. Conversely, if the market price is below the net asset value of the fund, they will buy ETFs on the market and present it to again, which reimburses them by delivering the underlying assets. They can then sell these securities on the market and making a profit. These so-called arbitrage transactions are fully automated and have the effect of “realign " asset prices that were uncorrelated. It is the development of algorithmic trading has led to the development of ETFs.

 In case of synthetic replication, the issuer does not directly hold securities of the index, but other assets. It will then go to a specialized intermediary , typically a bank, to negotiate with him a "total return swap " the bank pays the issuer of the ETF 's performance index, while it reverse the performance of assets held in the portfolio. Physical replication is mainly practiced in the United States, where regulation severely limits the use of derivatives by collective investment funds. In Europe, ETFs are equally divided between the two modes of replication. We are mainly interested here in the physical replication, in which today we have a little more perspective. All this cooking takes place behind the scenes between specialized players (asset managers, hedge funds, brokers and banks financing and investment), thus preserving the image of simplicity and transparency between the final investor.

This should not, however, be fooled: many intermediaries are involved in constantly, and we must be aware that they do not by pure philanthropy, but because they have an interest. There was a second there the resemblance securitization market: the first beneficiaries of financial innovation are not the ultimate investors, but those who create and distribute these innovative instruments. That said, proponents point out that these ETF products are primarily funds, and so most of them are within the regulatory framework for the funds. These regulations, both in Europe in the United States, are very demanding especially in terms of transparency to investors . It is up to them to read the prospectus in which he will find, in principle, all the necessary information.

Know more about Crowd funding!

Crowd funding is a technical project finance business start using the internet as a channel of linkage between project managers and those wishing to invest in these projects. Of course it is an ancient practice but currently it is the subject of a wide popularity due to its simplicity of operation and the difficulties faced by some designers to find financing for their small projects.

 How it works?

The investor who wants to invest some money in a good project at one end and the holder of a project who starts business but does not have the funds needed to start his business and does not want to call the bank credit at the other end. The both meet on the Internet via a dedicated platform. The projects are presented by their holders and investors choose to fund one that they like to live up to what they want to invest. The simple operation of this form of financing also has the advantage of transparency for the investor. Both knows what is funds and by which choice and by its values. Crowd funding is associated with all kinds of projects. Generally, cultural, digital projects, social, environmental, innovative are the few worth mention.

 Three types of inputs are available to investors:

The first type of investment is a small gift or donation that is given to the project but the remuneration of the investor has no financial consideration. The second type of investment is a participation in the equity of the company created. The remuneration of the investor is then by dividends or the gain realized on the sale of securities. The third type of a investment is a loan. Pouring loan interest may only be offered by credit institutions authorized by the Banks. Fundraising to make lending is strictly prohibited. Only collecting interest free loans is open to individuals. The money invested can be few dollars to several hundred. Banking and tax regulations is a source of significant stress for structures offering financing platforms that obey different rules : The detailed identification of the investor ( proof of identity and residence) is needed to controls against money laundering , anti- terrorism, etc.

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Crowdfunding

The crowdfunding is a practice that is becoming increasingly important in all sectors. The "Crowdfunding" means "crowd funding" is to highlight key projects on an online platform and collect donations from users to realize the project. To date, there are several online platforms that do crowdfunding. This device allows individuals to find projects that match their taste, nearby or across the world, in all areas that are, and contribute directly to their construction, thanks to their savings in the form of committed gift, loan, or capital. The problem is that more and more participatory sites come onto the market, and each has a different mode of operation. According to the funding model on which they are based, the consequences for individual investors are not the same.

Mymajorcompany is a crowdfunding online in 2007 platform provides an opportunity for people who want to fund a project to place their gifts on a project of an artistic nature of a fixed term of six months. The project manager makes his case online retailer counterparties repay it intends to users. At the end of the operation, if the project has raised enough money to see the date, individual donors perceive generally a share of profits from the commercialization of the project, "if it generates." This model then gives a close to a "micro business angel" to users who invest in the sustainability of the project status. Other platforms offer gifts to reward individuals who contribute to the financing of projects. If the amount set is reached, the project is funded and users receive a symbolic reward for their participation. The counterparty may be a book autographed a copy of the disc, a card or just a letter / email of thanks. The business model here is closer to the hardcore gift. It keeps the character "philanthropist" to donate to help and not to return on investment. The most popular sites are KissKissBankBank, Babeldoor are the few crowdfunding platforms works by financing through a loan. The user advances some funds to the project of their choice. Once the project is completed, the user is reimbursed up to his contribution. In this area, the most famous platform Babyloan.org lends without interest.

 There is currently no legislation governing trade and financial flows on crowdfunding platforms. The reason is that the amounts are not large enough to be controlled by law. However, crowdfunding involves several "soft" areas. In the case of a system based on micro-credit model, the platform must have approval by Authority, which is rarely the case. Then, any financial contribution by an individual to a project gives it the status of "associate" because its contribution is legally speaking a capital contribution to the project, which is never the case. Crowdfunding is basically a system that works through donations. The payments are considered donations, must be reported to the tax and to be taxed. The majority of individuals skip this step. If these sites are regularly used to give large sums of money, it is likely that the IRS is involved.

China facing a new threat of credit crunch!

Almost all the economists alarmed an increase in risk every day to see a new burst in credit bubble in Asia and now things seems to be clear now. The rating agency Fitch indicates that such event without precedent in the history of the modern world could burst in China. The Tribune does not beat around the bush; and citing a threat of a credit crunch. We have discussed these things already on various times. The occurrence of this new credit crisis may in turn be hit hardly soon. The main resources for these happening are the excessive growth of bank loans to the private sector and the loans outside the formal sectors etc which lend in turn more difficult to repay by the borrower. On Friday, the Chinese interbank rates showed a sharp decline, the refinancing rate to seven days - part of the cost of interbank lending - dropping from 11.62% to 8.33%, such a move could not be obtained thanks to rumors suggesting that the PBOC (the Central Bank of China) was pressure to release the donor funds, or it can intervene directly. Earlier, panic had seized the Chinese interbank market, the benchmark rate to a record high at 13.91%. In the end, according to Bloomberg, 50 billion Yuan (about 6.15 billion Euros) were injected into the market by the central bank. The situation with less tense will prevail in recent weeks and it will continue, and the worst is still to be feared to come out. Leading analysts consider that the PBOC should maintain its policy to severely restricting access to credit for businesses and individuals. Reasons behind this are; it will help to restrict the high level of bad loans held by Chinese banks. A context is that investors fear that banks are facing difficulties increasingly strong to refinance. During the past two weeks, the rate of refinancing had indeed soared, the Chinese Central Bank stopping the injection of liquidity, despite the economic downturn. A measure which provoked a strong restriction of access to credit, draping the exchanges while blocking the lending capacity of banks. Monetary authorities and Chinese policies now want to end the very rapid credit growth in recent years. It is true that there is an emergency, leading institutions in the viewfinder smaller banks, which have increased their loans while speculating heavily. A situation that pushes the government to "clean up" the banking market, closing the valve to riskier institutions, a policy may lead some to bankruptcy. Another worrying and not least: in May, a report released by the rating agency Moody indicated that informal lending outside the banking sector in China had increased by almost 70% over the past two years ... representative now the equivalent of 55% of gross domestic product (GDP). Financial products of the informal sector amounted at the end 2012 to 29,000 Yuan (3,600 billion Euros), according to preliminary calculations by Moody's. A narrower definition of the sector excluding loans fiduciary obligations and asset-backed companies, the informal sector would weigh only 21000 billion Yuan, but still 39% of GDP. The Moody's report indicated that parallel "informal banking sector could have a leverage effect on the finances of the wider economy and amplify fears of a credit bubble. The rating agency felt that the rapid growth of informal loans increased risks to the banking system and the Chinese economy as a whole. "Given the sheer size and growth of informal banking in China, we doubt the ability of banks to guard against a significant increase in defaults" in this area, yet warned by Moody's. In March, the Banking Regulatory Commission noted that it had ordered banks to control the funds asset management more closely in order to contain the risk and increase transparency. According to Fitch, Chinese banks have somehow hidden in a second parallel balance the equivalent of 2 billion loan mechanism to circumvent the official boundaries and new regulations put in place to curb the excesses. Practices that cause the bursting of a credit bubble. Because, according to Fitch, half of the loans must be renewed every three months and hence forth at least in less than six months. According to Charlene Chu, senior director of Fitch in Beijing, "The country has duplicated the entire U.S. commercial banking system in five years." Adding that the credit is increased from 9 000 to 23 000 billion dollars since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. "All this is far worse than anything we could know before in a major economy. We do not know what will happen. The next six months will be crucial, "said Chu also. For her, "the model of growth based on credit is clearly exploding. This could fuel a massive crisis of over-capacity, and potentially a Japanese-style deflation. " According to Wei Yao of Society General, the debt level of Chinese enterprises has reached the threshold of 30% of GDP, the threshold is nothing but a typical of financial crises.